Written on the 18th of November 2008 by Bernard Salt (Herald Sun)
There is an inordinate focus on how the recession might play out next year.
How will it affect house prices?
Will unemployment reach double figures? When will we see the first signs of recovery?
But, rather than focusing on recession, I'm more interested in how one might shape Australia's mood.
Will we see things differently next decade without the fog of rampant consumerism?
After the 1991 recession the world was meant to enter a "kinder, gentler phase" following the graspingness of the late 1980s, epitomised in television dramas such as Dallas and Dynasty.
As a consequence, inflated egos, big hair and shoulder pads all subsided in the early 1990s. Indeed, the aversion to public debt is a carry-over.
But for real evidence of how an economic downturn can shape community values we need look no further than the Great Depression.
The fertility rate dropped in the 1930s partly because people didn't want to bring children into a calamitous world.
But also because there was no greater passion killer than unemployment in a time that predated social security.
Speak to anyone over the age of 80 about the Great Depression and its lessons of privation are seared into their memories and values.
They admire concepts such as "sacrifice" and "going without".
These notions are, frankly, bizarre to later generations.
The Great Depression also brought out deep-seated ideals of parental care and concern. Child star Shirley Temple blossomed in the 1930s.
Her movies were always carefully scripted to show vulnerable, adorable, Shirley being rescued by kindly adults who promise her a brighter future.
And, ultimate joy, she sang them a special song of thanks.
All of this prompts the question of what lies beyond the boom and recession? How will our values and consumer spending be transformed?
The clues are already out there: trends are coalescing into a new conservative set of community values. Could recession lead to a New Wowserism?
Over the past decade the tech boom melded into the property boom, which in turn transformed into the resources boom. Property prices and the share market boomed as a consequence.
We all felt and acted richer.
Plasma televisions, McMansions and Manolo Blahniks made their debuts in this decadent decade.
But the "decade of excess" is now being judged, and found wanting. Corporate greed is seen as much more than "excessive" - it is immoral.
The Catholic Church tapped into this trend early in 2008 with its extension of the seven deadly sins to include obscene wealth.
The environmental movement has for some time been preaching (and I use the word advisedly) about the morality of this generation despoiling the planet for later generations.
There is a sense that we are being called to account for the sins of our past: debt, pollution, greed.
This is not a recession we are facing; this is a day of reckoning.
But this notion goes beyond the sinful, wanton, use of credit and indifference to the environment.
On the final day of the 2020 Summit in April the suggestion that there be a tax on junk food brought a rousing cheer from a crowd fused in their disapproval of the sin of obesity.
Credit, carbon and now evil carbs must be corralled and curtailed in the brave new world.
Early this year McDonald's released its rainforest initiative.
This is not another corporate jumping on the green bandwagon.
In this initiative Maccas undertakes to ensure that workers in its coffee supplier's plantations are treated fairly and with respect.
This is beyond green - this is ethical.
Both of Australia's largest brewers have this year released green beer.
Nothing to do with colour; everything to do with ethical behaviour.
At some point next decade there will be something like a rainforest initiative, perhaps a remuneration initiative that projects ethical values in executive remuneration to a consumer market that now exercises opinion on corporate behaviour.
But what if your product falls foul of Wowserism? For example, chocolate.
Easy. You envelope the product in an ethical cloak.
Hence, from New Zealand and the US, we now have "Climate Change Chocolate" by Bloomsbury & Co.
Each bar comes with a verified carbon offset and the wrapper offers 15 handy environmental tips.
Carrie Bradshaw wears in excess of 30 outfits in the Sex and the City movie released earlier this year.
The producers were lucky.
A year on, Carrie's couture might be seen as frivolous and decadent.
Repent now, Carrie. Pay off debt. Recycle. Steer clear of carbs. Donate a portion of your wealth to charity.
You might just stay ahead of the consumer values curve.